Belief-shock tape
Prediction markets that moved five points or more inside one hour, on a two-sided quote that actually traded. Perps are scored on Hyperliquid and corroborated on Lighter. Book size is shown, never used as a filter: a thin move can be the earliest one.
| Hour UTC | Event / outcome | Book | Belief · traded | 6h later | Perps, same hour | Buying into it |
|---|
Reading the tapewhat each column measures, in plain words
- Event
- A question on Polymarket whose odds moved five points or more inside one hour, on real trades. Which side gained, the mechanism family it maps to, and its topic.
- Book
- Resting orders on the book, as the venue reports them, and the quoted spread. Context only. "Thin" marks a book under $25k; the row is here because its price passed the test and the move traded.
- Belief · traded
- How far the odds moved and from where to where. Under it, how much traded in that hour and from how many accounts. Under that, which minute carried the move and how much of it: near 100% is a single print, low is a drift, "choppy" means the biggest minute went the other way. A scheduled release is named only when the minute matches a fixed table.
- 6h later
- Where the odds sat six hours after the move ended, and a word for what that means. "Held" is most of the move still there; "went further" is beyond it; "faded" is most of it gone; "reversed" is past where it started. One snapshot, not the path.
- Perps, same hour
- The perps this kind of event should move, and what they did on Hyperliquid in that same hour, each measured against its own normal hourly move (σ). A chip is a move at least three times normal that also stood out from the rest. "Quiet" means measured and nothing unusual, which is a result. "Could not look" means the asset barely traded that hour. Lighter is checked beside each. Every chip says how often that pattern appears in a random hour. Same hour, not cause.
- Buying into it
- Money that bought the winning side in the 24 hours before the move, across how many accounts, and whether their average entry beat the pre-move price. Near zero means they were the buyers who moved it, not people who knew. Never a name.
Next up
Scheduled events with a resolved analog above, and which world would carry them on Many Worlds.
Live quotes, Many Worlds devnet
The same two prices, quoted as conditional markets on the one venue that lists them. Private devnet, invited testers.
Case files
A resolved event, pulled apart into the two prices the market was carrying before it resolved.
Belief, from Polymarket
Where the reaction traded
- Hyperliquid
- Lighter
- Agreement
- Activity
Across assets
| Asset | Role | Asset moved | Gap between worlds | Confidence |
|---|
Replay
The selected case, played bar by bar. Record it to share the clip.
Price it yourselfseeded with the selected case's implied prices
Your blended outright
p × YES + (1 − p) × NO
Disagreement with market
YES-world scenario, net of fees
NO-world scenario, net of fees
The position that expresses your view
Arithmetic on your inputs. Not a forecast.